June 2025 – A paper provided by The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. The paper can be read here and at source here – provided under a Creative Commons Attribution*. A summary and comment on the paper by Car-Crime-UK follows
In recent years, the UK has seen a resurgence in organised vehicle theft, reversing a two-decade decline. The RUSI report represents the first contemporary, open-access analysis of this growing threat. It identifies the key actors, evolving criminal methodologies, international market dynamics, and systemic weaknesses in the national response.
Key Statistics and Findings
Scale of the Problem
- 75% increase in vehicle theft since 2013–14.
- 136,396 cases reported in 2022–23 (p. 2).
- Theft rate increased from 2.71 to 4.42 per 1,000 privately owned cars between 2014 and 2023 (p. 2–3).
- Estimated £1.77 billion in economic and social costs for 2023–24 (p. 4).
Criminal Innovation
- Shift from physical theft to high-tech methods:
- Relay attacks (p. 7)
- CAN bus injection, bypassing immobilisers via ECUs (p. 7–8)
- Devices sold for £20,000+, now appearing as cheaper foreign replicas (p. 8).
- Organised Criminal Groups (OCGs) operate sophisticated international theft and export pipelines (p. 9–11).
International Export & Repatriation
- Vehicles leave the UK within 24 hours of theft (p. 8–9).
- Common destinations: UAE, Cyprus, DRC, Georgia, Russia (p. 14–15).
- Little to no export oversight: Port checks prioritise imports; minimal outbound enforcement (p. 21).
- No mention of repatriation procedures, success rates, or diplomatic mechanisms.
Recovery and Enforcement
- Recovered vehicles often stripped to shells, yet still counted as ‘found’ (p. 10).
- Charge rate dropped to 2.6% in 2023–24, down from 9.2% in 2013–14 (p. 19).
- No national coordination, intelligence gathering or unified operational framework (p. 20–22).
- National vehicle intelligence function is staffed by only one analyst (p. 22).
CarCrime.UK raises the following comments/concerns:
| Issue | Coverage | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicles found abroad | Mentioned (p. 14–15) | No numbers/statistics; lack of repatriation infrastructure |
| Condition of recovered vehicles | Acknowledged (p. 10) | Potentially misleading recovery statistics – stripped cars are counted as successes |
| False vehicle theft allegations | Not covered | Important for understanding fraud vs. genuine claims |
| National coordination | Weak; NaVCIS under-resourced? | Lack of unified national strategy hinders response |
| Online part resale | Rampant on platforms like eBay (p. 13) | Little regulation; significant criminal revenue stream |
| Port and border control | Focused on imports (p. 21) | Exports of stolen vehicles go largely unchecked |
Recommendations for Policymakers
- Develop a National Vehicle Crime Strategy
Establish a dedicated national body to lead coordination, analysis, and enforcement. - Improve Port Security for Outbound Cargo
Equip ports with resources and mandates to inspect exports systematically. - Review Recovery Metrics
Redefine what constitutes a ‘recovered vehicle’ to avoid inflating success rates. - Introduce Repatriation Frameworks
Negotiate bilateral or multilateral protocols to recover vehicles from high-destination countries. - Regulate Online Sales of Vehicle Parts
Impose verification requirements for part listings; require traceability of VINs. - Criminal Device Ban Enforcement
Enforce the Crime and Policing Bill’s ban on theft-enabling devices; share intelligence with manufacturers (p. 18) – though ‘going equipped’ offence appears fitting. - Close Legislative Loopholes
Reassess the unintended effects of “Right to Repair” on vehicle security (p. 18)*. - Address Insurance Fraud and Alleged Thefts
Encourage research into the volume and nature of suspected false theft claims.
* This appears to be a problematic area:
“Motorists must be free to choose where they service their vehicles and what parts they use without fear of losing their warranty.“
“Independent garages must not be blocked from accessing essential diagnostic data or tools.” Read more here.
Conclusion
This report highlights the urgent need for systemic, cross-sector reform in tackling organised vehicle theft. While criminals have evolved into globalised, tech-savvy operations, the UK’s response remains siloed, reactive and under-resourced. Without swift national coordination, legislative tightening, and improved data collection, the UK risks further growth in a low-risk, high-reward criminal market.
*
The creator – The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Parties – Elijah Glantz, Mark Williams and Alastair Greig